old post,still true,needs re-write macblog: "Achordesk - Apple vs Linux vs Windows 2003-06-30 (AM) Interestingly, between the article and the first two posts, all the possibilities (interesting ones anyway) are covered. David thinks that we are all unwilling slaves to the Dark Lords of Redmond. They may make substandard software, but we all all doomed to have to use it FOREVER! Nice Guy thinks Linux will make everything else irrelevant. Andy declares a pox on both Linux and Windows respective houses. You're all wrong! (and right of course). Microsoft has nowhere to go but down, or over. They need to diversify, have tried, and failed, multiple times. Investors are tired of waiting. Microsoft is trailing the tech stock market for a reason. If Linux and Apple disappeared tomorrow they would still be in trouble, a victim of their own success. Linux and Open Source have certainly helped make the software market into a commodity market again, and at about the same time that the hardware market has turned that way. Probably not a coincidence. I think both Apple and Linux will continue (slowly) to make inroads into the Windows market share. Apple has been executing perfectly, and needs to continue doing so without any major missteps. Linux can afford to execute perfectly, or not. Since the Open Source movement is driven by it's users it's hard for it to make mistakes about what users want, at least as far as those of us who use it go. I've taken to using OS X and Linux about equally. I have more computers running Linux, but my iBook is so darned handy to have around I tend to use it more than my larger, heavier and uglier Compaq, which runs Debian Linux, but is also capable of running Windows on those rare occasions these days when I have to. I used to love Windows. When was that? When the only alternative was DOS. Since then, Windows has always been behind (in almost every respect) its nearest competitor. They continued to win by out-marketing rather than out-performing the competition. In theory they could continue to do that now, except they are caught between the rock and hard place of one competitor that is technically better in every way and another competitor that is free. This would even be a manageable situation if computer hardware prices were on the way up, rather than down. Nobody wants to spend up to half of their next hardware purchase on the bundled software that comes with it. Windows prices need to come down, drastically, but thats not something Microsoft can do until is has another cash cow to milk. So far all their potential cows have turned into turkeys. Windows is like Kool Aid, almost all sugar. The young and inexperienced continue to be hooked on it, but those who have been drinking it while they grew up show signs of poor health. The adults watch and shake their heads. OK, I'm all metaphored out, coffee has kicked in. Windows will continue to decline, but so slowly that people like David will pronounce it as invincible for a good bit longer. Apple and Linux will both continue to gain market share, Apple with the US market and with pure end-users, Linux with the more sophisticated techies, third world, second world, and well managed institutions. Don't look for an earthquake, look for wildflowers growing in what used to be a well manicured lawn. Hmmm, maybe I need another cup."